New app for making power law predictions for race performance

I recently published a critical speed calculator app, which makes it super easy to use the critical speed model to estimate your steady-state max. However, the critical speed model is not the most accurate way to predict race performance at new distances—that honor belongs to power law models (sometimes also called Riegel models, after Pete Riegel who popularized their use in running). 

I covered the science behind power law models in this earlier article on power law models versus critical speed models for predicting race times. Thanks to the infrastructure I built for the critical speed model, it was super easy to swap out the statistical model for a power law model: so now I have a brand-new power law calculator too!

⏱️ Try my power law calculator here ⏱️

Power law models are great for extrapolating—for example, predicting your half marathon time from a 5k and a 10k, or predicting your 400m time from an 800m and a 1500m time. They perform much better at this task than the critical speed model, and my power law calculator also includes some useful features for prediction.

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In windy conditions, running at a constant effort is usually better than running at a constant speed

Suppose you are running a 5k race on an out-and-back course, and there’s a strong headwind on the way out—should you aim to run at the same effort the whole way, allowing the wind to slow you down on the way out and speed you up on the way back? Or should you maintain the same speed, working harder on the way out and relaxing more on the way back? 

For most runners, it feels intuitive that constant-effort running should be better—in the sense of leading to better performance—than constant-speed running: constant-effort pacing is better than speeding up and slowing down, after all. But here’s a potential counterargument: if you run faster when going into the wind, you spend less time exposed to the wind, so you’ll save energy on balance.

So, which argument is correct?

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The principles of modern marathon training

This article is adapted from my new book, Marathon Excellence for Everyone, which is available now on Amazon.

If you are trying to run a good marathon, not just get to the finish line, how should you train? That was the question I set out to answer when I started coaching marathoners over 12 years ago.

The complete answer to that question deserves (and gets) a full book-length treatment, but in this article, I want to distill the modern approach to marathon training down to its most essential core principles.

What is our goal in marathon training?

The basic proposition of the marathon is simple: our goal is to run 26.2 miles as fast as possible. Doing so requires a very specific set of physiological, biomechanical, and psychological capabilities. We need to build up these capabilities step by step, respecting the underlying principles of proper training.

Proper training for the marathon has many facets and details, but the broad strokes can be understood through five simple principles:

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A high-level picture of physiological training load for runners

Runners and coaches throw around the term “training load” a lot, assuming everyone knows what they’re talking about. But when you start to dig into the meaning of that term, you end up with what you might call the “tempo run” problem—the term means something different for just about everyone!

In this article, I am beginning a three-part series on how to think about training load. I’m not going to laboriously cover the mathematics of every possible training load metric.

Instead, I want to present a high-level conceptual framework—specifically, my claim is that there are three types of training load that you should consider in training: physiological training load, biomechanical training load, and psychological training load.

Each of these types of training load has various ways of being quantified, and arguably various sub-components as well. The three types of training load also relate to one another in some interesting ways. But before talking about interactions, we need to understand each type of load on its own first.

Our topic today is the first of these three: physiological training load.

In short, physiological training load describes the stimulus experienced by the various biological subsystems of your body that contribute to energetics writ large: so, your bloodstream, your mitochondria, your lactate transport proteins, and even the primary motor cortex of your brain. Proper physiological training load drives improvement: gains in your body’s energetic capabilities that allow you to run faster and further.

See also: Part II - biomechanical training load

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Podcast: How to improve physiological resilience for the marathon

Regular readers will know that I’m a big believer in the importance of physiological resilience for the marathon—the ability to resist the decline in your effective fitness level as a race continues. This week I was thrilled to return to Jason Fitzgerald’s Strength Running Podcast to do a deep dive into physiological resilience.

In the podcast, we unpack every aspect of resilience (sometimes also called durability): what it is, why it matters, and how you can improve it.

We also discussed questions like:

  • Is resilience the most important thing for the marathon?
  • Is fueling the key to better resilience?
  • What aspects of marathon training have I changed my mind on?
  • And much more!

Regular readers will remember that I appeared on Jason’s show in August of last year to chat about “Zone 3” and the benefits of high-end aerobic training. It was awesome to come back on the show and talk about another one of my favorite scientific topics. 

You can find the show on your favorite podcasting service:

🎙️ Click here to listen on Spotify

🎙️ Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts

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Podcast: chatting marathon training with That Triathlon Show

I had the pleasure of being the guest on the latest episode of Mikael Eriksson’s That Triathlon Show, a podcast focused on the science of everything endurance-related. Regular listeners will remember that I went on this same podcast back in June to chat about the intersection of physiology and training, and it was great to come back on the show.

This time, Mikael and I went in-depth on the modern approach to marathon training that I lay out in my new book, Marathon Excellence for Everyone. We talk about periodization, mileage, workout progression, structuring your weekly schedule, and what most runners get wrong about marathon training.

We also do some Q&A from listeners on LT1 (the first lactate threshold), double threshold vs. special blocks, heat training, and more. I love doing technical deep-dives like this, so this show was incredibly fun.

You can find the show on your favorite podcasting service - check out the links below! 

🎧 Listen to the show here on Spotify

🎧 Listen to the show here on Apple Podcasts

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Are heat-adjusted pace calculations accurate for the marathon?

Last week I published my heat-adjusted pace calculator, which estimates how much you’ll have to slow down in hot, humid conditions during a long workout or long race in the heat.

The timing of the release provided a very nice opportunity for a validation test: the marathon at the 2025 World Athletics Championships, which was held this past weekend in brutally hot conditions in Tokyo.

The women’s race on Sunday was held in 86° F (30° C) and 70% humidity; the men’s race on Monday was held in 82° F (28° C) and 72% humidity. These, clearly, are far from ideal marathon conditions, and the finish times reflect the difficult conditions.

By looking at how slow the top athletes actually ran, compared with how slow they were predicted to run by my calculator, we can check how accurate these “heat-adjusted paces” really are.

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A runner’s guide to LT1, the first lactate threshold

LT1 is the first lactate threshold: one of two key thresholds that define your body’s pattern of physiological response to different running speeds (the other being steady-state max or “SSmax”).

Your LT1 can be intuitively understood as the boundary between paces that feel easy versus paces that feel moderate, steady, or strong.

On a physiological level, LT1 represents the point at which your aerobic system faces its first real disturbance to homeostasis.

Now, that does not mean that paces above LT1 are anaerobic—instead, your aerobic system rises to meet this challenge, and maintains an aerobic steady-state. However, the signs of this greater aerobic challenge become evident in key physiological metrics like blood lactate and oxygen consumption.

A number of my recent posts have brushed up against LT1, like my article on individual variation in heart rate zones, my transcript and commentary on Marius Bakken’s double threshold training, my article on physiological resilience for marathon runners, and of course my article linked above on SSmax, the other key physiological transition.

However, I haven’t done a full article yet dedicated to LT1, and since there’s a ton of wrongheaded information out there about exactly what LT1 represents, it’s high time we take a deep dive into the science behind LT1, the mess of various acronyms and terms related to LT1, and the practical relevance of LT1 for training.

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Individual variation in heart rates at LT1 and LT2 in runners, and the implications for zone training

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The entire purpose of running by heart rate zones is to create a specific pattern of physiological response in your body when running in each zone. “Zone 2 training,” for example, has specific (purported) fitness benefits that are connected with the physiological responses seen below LT1, the first lactate threshold.

There is a similar connection between “Zone 4 training” and LT2: the purpose is to be close to, but not above, LT2, the second lactate threshold.

In Part I of this series on heart rate zones, we covered the science of maximal heart rate (HRmax), %HRmax, heart rate reserve (HRR), and %HRR. We also covered the science of LT1 and LT2 (which is really just a method of estimating SSmax), and why LT1 and LT2 must be at the foundation of any scientifically based zone training model.

(Note that reading Part I is not a strict pre-requisite; if you are familiar with the basics of %HRmax, %HRreserve, LT1, and LT2 you should be able to follow along just fine).

We concluded Part I with two simple questions: (1) what heart rates correspond to LT1 and LT2? and (2) can specific heart rate zones correctly position you below or above these key thresholds?

Our purpose in this article is to answer these questions. More specifically, we are interested in the individual variation in the heart rates that correspond to LT1 and LT2. It would be wonderful—and suspiciously convenient—if LT1 and LT2 corresponded to exactly 70% and 90% of HRmax, as some zone models claim. Unfortunately, heart rate zones are neither this convenient nor this consistent.

In short, LT1 and LT2 can occur at a shockingly broad range of heart rate values, even when expressed as %HRmax or %HRreserve. Here's the key data:

Threshold Maximal heart rate (HRmax): 90% range Heart rate reserve (HRR): 90% range
LT1 69 – 94% HRmax 65 – 90% HRR
LT2 80 – 98% HRmax 73 – 95% HRR

...and those are 90% ranges, meaning that one in ten runners will be outside these ranges!

If Zone 2 training is important to you, you need to be running at less than 70% HRmax, or less than 65% HRR to be 95% sure you are in Zone 2.[1]

These numbers come from a meta-analysis of 412 runners from 25 different scientific studies, the results of which I present below.

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LT1, LT2, and the scientific basis of heart rate zones for runners

Heart rate zones are all the rage for many runners. Various experts and authorities tout the benefits of different “zones,” though exactly how many zones there are—and what heart rates define each zone—are points of vociferous disagreement.

Instead of tackling the behemoth that is heart rate training in one post, this article is focused on one narrow but critical aspect of heart rate training: how and why heart rate zones are connected to LT1 and LT2, the first and second lactate thresholds.

My goal is to convince you that the entire point of heart rate zones—as they are currently used and advertised—is to be able to tell whether you are running below LT1, above LT1, or above LT2. The (purported?) benefits and (supposed?) scientific rationale of heart rate zones in popular training advice is almost always couched, either explicitly or implicitly, in the physiology of LT1 and LT2.

We will focus only on the connection between heart rate, heart rate zones, and LT1 & LT2 as key physiological signposts. Our goals are to answer the following questions:

  • What is heart rate trying to measure?
  • Which measurements of heart rate are most appropriate for quantifying training intensity?
  • What is the purpose and underlying science behind heart rate zones as a concept?

Along the way, we will understand %HRmax, %HRreserve (%HRR), and some (but not all) of their flaws.

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Check out my new book on marathon training!